Global Defence Experts Back IAF Chief’s Bold Claim: Pakistan Lost 2 Fighter Jets in Cross-Border Clash
Global defence experts endorse IAF Chief’s statement that Pakistan lost 2 fighter jets in a high-stakes aerial clash. Here’s how the incident unfolded and why it matters for regional security
A growing chorus of international military and defence experts has thrown its weight behind the Indian Air Force (IAF) Chief’s recent statement that Pakistan lost two fighter jets during a high-tension aerial skirmish. The incident, which unfolded during one of the most volatile periods in India–Pakistan relations, is being revisited as experts analyse radar data, pilot accounts, and strategic implications for South Asia’s fragile security balance.
Air Chief Marshal V.R. Chaudhari, speaking at a recent defence symposium in New Delhi, reaffirmed the IAF’s long-standing claim that Pakistan suffered two aircraft losses during the February 2019 aerial engagement that followed the Pulwama terror attack. While Pakistan had previously acknowledged losing only one aircraft — an F-16 — and denied any additional loss, the IAF has consistently maintained that evidence points to the destruction of another jet, believed to be a JF-17 Thunder or possibly another F-16.
Chaudhari’s statement reignited interest in the episode, prompting defence analysts worldwide to revisit the incident, verify past reports, and assess the broader implications for air power and deterrence strategies in the region.
The incident in question occurred on February 27, 2019, a day after India conducted air strikes on Balakot in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in retaliation for the Pulwama suicide bombing that killed 40 CRPF personnel.
According to official Indian accounts, the following chain of events took place:
Pakistani Retaliation — In the morning hours, a formation of Pakistani fighter jets, including F-16s, JF-17s, and Mirage III aircraft, crossed the Line of Control (LoC) intending to target Indian military installations.
IAF Interception — Indian air defence radars detected the incoming aircraft, prompting IAF fighters, including MiG-21 Bisons, Su-30MKIs, and Mirage 2000s, to scramble.
Dogfight Over LoC — In the ensuing aerial battle, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman in his MiG-21 shot down a Pakistani F-16 before being hit himself and ejecting across the LoC, where he was captured and later released.
Second Pakistani Loss — IAF claims suggest another Pakistani jet was downed by Su-30MKI or Mirage 2000 fire, though Pakistan has consistently denied this.
While Pakistan’s denial has been a central narrative in Islamabad’s media and official statements, several foreign experts have gradually aligned with India’s version. Among the notable voices:
Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), noted in his recent paper on South Asian air combat that “available radar imagery and engagement reports point to multiple Pakistani losses.”
John Aquila, a former US Air Force intelligence officer, remarked in an interview with Defense News that “the scale and ferocity of the engagement suggest a higher loss rate than publicly admitted by Pakistan.”
Anders Corr, geopolitical analyst and publisher of Journal of Political Risk, stressed that “Pakistan’s strategic incentive to underreport losses is consistent with patterns observed in past regional conflicts.”
One of the critical elements backing the IAF claim is the radar imagery released by India shortly after the engagement. This data allegedly shows two separate “kill tracks” — one corresponding to the F-16 shot down by Abhinandan’s MiG-21 and another involving a second aircraft disappearing from radar near the LoC.
Additionally, satellite imagery from commercial providers taken in the hours following the clash shows unusual wreckage patterns in two distinct areas, which some analysts have interpreted as evidence of a second crash site. While not conclusive, these images have been cited by independent observers as warranting further investigation.
Pakistan’s military spokesperson at the time, Major General Asif Ghafoor, categorically denied losing more than one aircraft, stating:
“The claim of downing a second Pakistani aircraft is incorrect. Only one of our pilots was involved and returned safely.”
Islamabad has also maintained that its use of F-16s in the skirmish was minimal, despite India presenting debris from an AIM-120 AMRAAM missile — a weapon used exclusively with F-16s.
From a strategic standpoint, acknowledging or disproving the second loss has far-reaching implications:
Deterrence Messaging — For India, confirming two kills reinforces its air combat capabilities and acts as a deterrent to future aggression.
F-16 Accountability — The use of F-16s by Pakistan could violate US export conditions if deployed in offensive operations against India, potentially straining US–Pakistan defence ties.
Information Warfare — Competing narratives highlight the role of propaganda in modern warfare, where perception management is as critical as battlefield success.
The renewed debate has prompted reactions across South Asia and beyond:
India — Defence circles have welcomed the international expert endorsements as vindication of the IAF’s skill and professionalism.
Pakistan — Islamabad has reiterated its stance, accusing India of “fabricating evidence” for political and military prestige.
United States — Washington has remained officially neutral but has conducted its own quiet reviews of the incident, which some retired officials suggest align more with the Indian narrative than Pakistan’s.
China — A strategic partner of Pakistan and co-developer of the JF-17, Beijing has refrained from public comment, focusing instead on regional stability calls.
Defence strategists warn that the 2019 clash underscores how quickly air skirmishes can escalate into broader conflict between two nuclear-armed states. Retired Air Marshal P.S. Ahluwalia told The Tribune:
“What happened in 2019 is a case study in both precision air combat and the dangers of brinkmanship. While the tactical victory was ours, the strategic lessons must guide us going forward.”
Technological advancements, such as beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles, radar cross-section reduction, and network-centric warfare systems, are set to shape the next decade of India–Pakistan aerial confrontations. Both nations are already upgrading their fleets, with India inducting Rafale fighters and Pakistan bolstering its JF-17 Block III units.
The resurfacing of the two-jet claim comes at a politically sensitive time, with both nations heading into election cycles where national security narratives can sway voter sentiment. In India, the government has highlighted the Balakot and post-Pulwama operations as examples of decisive leadership. In Pakistan, the focus remains on framing the incident as a moral and strategic success, despite possible operational setbacks.
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