Visiting Manipur Won’t Be Easy for PM Modi Amid Ongoing Crisis
New Delhi: On August 30, the Manipur home department issued a circular categorically stating that no leave will be granted to any police officer or personnel “from September 7 to 14” in view of “the exigencies of duty during the period”.
A senior Manipur official confirmed that this is due to a likely visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the north-eastern state. The official said his proposed itinerary includes Imphal, the state capital, and Churachandpur, one of the districts worst hit by the violence. A report in The Hindu on August 31, quoting “government sources” had said that Modi is expected to visit Manipur in the second week of September.
If the visit goes ahead, it will be the prime minister’s first visit to the state since ethnic clashes erupted in May 2023, more than two years ago.
Sources in the state said that the visit is being positioned as a “decisive move to bring an end to the prolonged conflict and to set the stage for a fully functional government in Manipur.”
Yet, beneath the optics lies a far more complex reality. Communities remain deeply divided, thousands continue to live in relief camps, and the Modi government has been criticised for its long silence on the crisis.
For over 850 days, Manipur has been on edge. The violence has claimed more than 260 lives, and displaced more than 60,000. Modi’s potential visit will depend on two critical developments – a new agreement under the Suspension of Operations (SoO) framework with Kuki-Zo groups, and the appointment of a new chief minister and the formation of a state government.
Is an SoO agreement likely?
Sources in the United People’s Front (UPF) and Kuki National Organisation (KNO), the two umbrella groups in Manipur that include several Kuki militant organisations, have confirmed that they have been invited by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) on September 3 to sign a new agreement that has been pending since 2024. The Suspension of Operations (SoO) pact, first signed on August 22, 2008, between the government of India, the government of Manipur, and Kuki insurgent groups, has been renewed annually since then. According to this agreement, “insurgent groups are required to remain in designated camps, with weapons behind lock and key.”
“KNO and UPF were on the verge of signing a political settlement with the Government of India on May 3, 2023, in Imphal. However, ethnic violence broke out in Manipur following political unrest,” a source said.
Since the ethnic violence, both the UPF and KNO have consistently pushed for a “separate administration” for the Kuki-Zo areas, arguing that coexistence with the Meitei community is no longer possible. The demand has significant support among the Kuki-Zo community, but remains firmly opposed by the Meiteis, the state’s majority community mostly confined to Manipur’s valley districts.
In 2025, the government of India resumed political dialogue with the Kuki-Zo armed groups in an effort to find a political settlement. Yet, the move faces strong resistance from Meitei civil society groups. They have demanded an immediate end to the SoO pact, accusing Kuki-Zo groups of violating ceasefire ground rules during the clashes.
“Three rounds of political dialogues were held in New Delhi in 2024, focusing on the demand for Union Territory status with a legislature. A draft formulation was submitted to Union home minister Amit Shah by interlocutor A.K. Mishra in August 2024. However, the government of India has not officially responded to the demand till today,” a reliable source said.
Sources within both state BJP and Congress have said that if New Delhi agrees to the “separate administration” demand by the Kuki group, there would be considerable rancour within the Meitei community towards the Union government.
What about the new government?
Though the Union government has extended the President’s Rule in the state by another six months this August, Imphal-based MLAs of the BJP have been meeting in batches, the party’s national leadership in the last few months, to urge it to form a new government in Manipur. With Modi’s likely visit to the state, there is considerable talk within the state BJP of the possibility of a new government put in place.
In the 60-member Manipur assembly, the NDA claims the support of 44 MLAs. The Union government placed the state under President’s Rule on February 13, 2025. Chief minister N. Biren Singh had resigned on February 9 after mounting criticism over his handling of the violence and the surfacing of an alleged audio tape reported on by The Wire, which is now under the scrutiny of the Supreme Court.
This August 25, in a twist to the case, the Supreme Court directed the government to send the alleged audio recording linked to Biren Singh to the National Forensic Science University (NFSU) in Gandhinagar to establish its authenticity. Earlier, a respected private lab, The Truth Lab, had stated in its report that the voice sample in the tape matched “93%” with that of the voice of Biren Singh.
Although the NDA claims majority support, neither the full list of 44 MLAs nor a formal letter of support has been made public after the ethnic conflict. Sources within the party have told The Wire that efforts to form a stable government have not succeeded as there is a division of opinion about the next chief minister. Top state leaders, including Biren Singh and state president Sharda Devi, have been told not to speak to the media.
The BJP also faces rebellion from within. Ten Kuki MLAs, including seven from the BJP, have publicly denounced Biren Singh’s handling of the ethnic violence and have distanced themselves from the party particularly after the Manipur tapes had surfaced.
“Reconciling these divisions and satisfying all factions within the party will be a formidable challenge to form a government in the state presently,” a reliable party source said from Imphal over telephone. “Additionally, the sources added, “The Biren Singh faction is batting for announcement of fresh elections as they don’t want any new chief ministerial candidate to be announced by the party’s national leadership as it may put Singh’s political stature in jeopardy.”
